UK General Election 2015: The Day After - Controversy, Constitution and... Maggie Simpson?

Hi there,


In Britain today there is a rich, sometimes awed mingling of reactions to what has been an extraordinary night, in our constitutional history. Labour's implosion in England and particularly in Scotland, compounded by the disintegration of the Lib Dems and a strong, but limited showing from Ukip and Conservative effort has returned David Cameron, now with a majority of 331 seats, to the premiership.


In a day of remarkable drama, dashed and enlivened hopes, Britain now is compelled to carefully consider, after the passions of election, the future it faces.


Though we will consider the respective factors further, the electoral map below - displaying Westminster constituencies contested in 2015 - embodies the stark, imposing reality of the new political alignment in the UK. The SNP the great victor of the night, they have swept to power across Scottish constituencies once considered Labour and Lib Dem bastions. Winning an astonishing 56 of the nations's 59 seats with a general swing of 25-26% from Lab to SNP, all that remains of the other parties in Scotland follows succinctly: the rural borders of Dumfriesshire held by the Conservatives, metropolitan Edinburgh South held by a combination of Lab and Conservative support in a Labour Candidate, and the islands of Orkney and Shetland, narrowly retained by a decimated Liberal Democrat party. But, in England, the wider narrative played out to the confusion of pollsters, voters and parties alike...

Westminster constituencies election 2015 results - Scotland, England, Northern Ireland & Wales (image courtesy of BBC election night coverage)

South of the Scottish border, the electoral environment was hostile, convoluted and witness to remarkable moments in British electoral history. The Conservative Party mounted a confident campaign against their rivals, while Labour strode towards the election with some measure of confidence: aspirations of forming the next government indulged before hopes were dashed as the political dynamics England proffered gave eclectic results.

The Conservatives doing well, as did Labour, at the cost of a withering Liberal Democrat vote, Labour failed to find traction in the south, beyond their bastions in the midlands and in the north; these being taken by conservatives who also gave a strong showing in Wales where - astonishingly - Labour lost their bastion of Gower: loyal for over a century before being captured with just 27 votes for the Conservative candidate. Elsewhere, the demise of the Lib Dems - seen as part of the necessary process of restoring a Labour government - was compounded by Ukip drawing Labour support away, and ultimately attenuating efforts in many regions where Labour hoped for a breakthrough.


The controversial party of the right, Ukip followed in second or third place where Labour and the Conservatives fought, with their influence felt in many instances where thousands drew away from red, blue and yellow to support the purple pound of the arch euro skeptics. Conservative success at the expense of Labour, Lab's gains from the Lib Dems and Ukip frustrating the efforts of both the former two was a scenario played out in many key constituencies which - along with SNP victory in Scotland - resulted in a growing complexion which one canny twitter user remarked was rather like the infant Maggie Simpson of "The Simpson's" fame. A note worthy of a chortle or two...

UK 2015 Post-General Election Map & Maggie Simpson (Uncanny)

By hours of daybreak, the future was looking bleak for Labour, disappointing for Ukip and atrocious for the Lib Dems; a once vigorous parliamentary party of 57 reduced to 8 in less than a day, memories of government growing distant as obscurity beckoned. The Conservatives returned with a majority of 331, Labour suffered a retreat of its fortunes not seen since the defeat of 1992 (the recent rendition of the play "The Absence of War" seeming darkly portentous, concerning the election), under Neil Kinnock; polling data, now having proved so despairingly aberrant, once evidence of a neck and neck race, now latently pointing to a decisive Labour decline, as exit polls contradicted their predecessors. Labour reduced to 232 seats, while their Lib Dem competitors retain only 8 seats - equal to the Northern Irish DUP -  their respective leaders sought immediate resignation; words bracing for a difficult future as both parties are destined to struggle in hopes of explaining their defeat - and to rebuild, come what may. The same was said of Ukip - the controversial Nigel Farage failing to win his seat as the party's role seemed more of a strategic hinderance than destined legislative force at this election, though now entering the House of Commons with one seat.

Resigned Party Leaders - 2015

Ed Miliband (Labour), Nick Clegg (Lib Dem), Nigel Farage (Ukip)

At the conclusion of this general election, a singular electoral experience, we arrive now at the threshold of a new paradigm in British politics. The Conservative Party seemingly victorious, David Cameron cannot afford to be indulgent with his second term: lacking a Scottish or wider British mandate while also facing a Conservative party galvanized by euro skepticism and the draw of social politics which could yet prove very difficult for wider British society to stomach, in the long term. More so, the SNP's victory in Scotland has compelled the astonishing understanding that Cameron may very well be the last Prime Minister of the UK, in its current constitutional complexion: Scotland's devolution set to grow and evolve into greater autonomy regardless of what some in the Conservative Party may consider of their northern neighbor. 

In addition, Labour heads to not only a leadership contest but to also a potential indictment of the party's governing social and political paradigm: the neo-liberalism of the 1990's and 2000's working to alienate voters, while a weaker stance on ethnic and social politics has undermined the party in some English seats of a increasingly conservative voting culture - a stance which Ukip capitalized upon to severely maul both Labour and the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems having been decimated, their future as a viable political force remains uncertain as the liberal tradition in present day England seems to be winding down to historical obscurity. Ukip, once hailed as the party to upset the establishment, were ultimately constrained and limited to one seat; their destined success seeming less surely purchased as their narrative corroded both Lab, Lib Dem and Conservative support without actually breaking through themselves. 

With the election now over, we have seen a remarkable few months come to a close as another, and possibly exceptional, chapter in British politics begins; Britain potentially realigning under a more articulated or heterogeneous federalism with the once linear politics of the Westminster paradigm fragmenting into more overtly ethnic, delineated models of democracy in the respective polities.

Wither such postulations come to pass, or if the UK has a future within a reconstituted, deeply reformed framework is debatable, though it will remain from this day onward that British politics - now and for many, many years to come - will never be the same again.

Clark Caledon.