Hi there,
Today and the two that follow it will prove particularly interesting in my corner of the world. In the very least, we stand on the threshold of a general election for the United Kingdom's central legislature - the Westminster Parliament - and the further examination of Britain's democratic culture in the years after the financial crises, but also an event in which the dynamics are thoroughly unique. By nature a majoritarian, first-past-the-post system, usually dominated by the Conservative and Labour parties - latterly with the ostensibly centrist Liberal Democrats as the former's government partners - this election is one in which the central institutions of the British political system have been subjected to growing peripheral examination from nationalist, regional and special interest parties, working in the face of the centre's perceived deficits.
Over the last five years, we have seen many new and remarkable developments in British politics and in the tenor of the prevailing discourse: no longer as singular or as predictable as it once was, and with the marked growth of national, ethnic and social narratives pointedly removed from the once prevailing mainstream. Certainly deriving from events before the assumption of the Conservative-Lib Dem Coalition in 2010, it remains an indelible fact that government in Britain from this point onward has proven one galvanized by attempts to address the financial crisis of the late 2000's, but also the enduring legacy of that era has impelled many in the wider British polity to consider their world more critically. Now, on the eve of what must surely be something of a judgement concerning these past years - and the more complicated, charged ambiance they afford - it remains to consider what might become of the hours and days ahead.
Of course, there are a number of scenarios - with markedly more gravitas since coalition government became a fact and hung parliaments a feasible fixture of the new politics - and though some have more purchase than others, it does afford many intriguing possibilities for the future of governance in Britain.
Of the three ostensibly principle British parties - Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat (the latter no longer the third largest) - the former two still indulge dreams of a majority, while the latter would wish to inform and partner with the one bearing the firmer mandate. The polls to date reading as almost parallel between Labour and Conservative, the Lib Dems have made good on their obligation to give at least a brave front: no other choice prevailing in the face of their unpopularity and seemingly constrained profile in government.
The Labour Rose, Liberal Dove and Conservative Oak
In turn, as the focus and momentum has drawn away from the centre, we find the parties embodying this tendency: some new, some established and some refreshed by new, regional debate. The Scottish National Party have compelled a remarkable profile over the past few years. Winning a majoritarian style second term in Scotland's 2012 devolved elections, the party's fortunes were staked high for the Scottish independence referendum of 2014. Though ostensibly defeated, the party - having since become the focus of a wider, vibrant constitutional movement - experienced a surge in growth: passing 100,000 members to eclipse the Lib Dems as Britain's third largest party overall, and compelling a critical examination of Scotland's expanding powers of devolution as the Scottish and British polity's grow wider in their disjunction. Considering the possibility of them eclipsing Labour in Scotland's Westminster constituencies, they have been regarded - with some disdained fascination - as potential kingmakers to a future Labour government, if Labour can compromise towards a common, progressive imperative and does not win a majority.
Stylised Saltire of the SNP
Considered to something of a ideological counterpoint to the aspirations and influence of the Scottish nationalists, is the resurgence of the seemingly ironic and English phenomenon of Ukip: the United Kingdom Independence Party. The group springing from obscurity as voters found a common voice in the party's euro skepticism, fears over immigration and affinity for ethnic conservatism - if it can be called that - across portions of rural and semi-urban/urban England. Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland offering the party little traction, they remain a seemingly popular force in their heartlands; intruding between the narratives of Labour, Conservative and Lib Dem with efforts to synthesize a more reactionary, hardened conservative stance in Britain more widely. Ambitious, it remains to be seen if this party can stand the test of a general election.
The Purple Pound of Ukip
Two other parties that could prove influential, in the coming contest, arrive from very disparate backgrounds, but could prove interesting actors, should they arrive in some contingent at Westminster. Firmly unionist and socially conservative, the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party has stood in opposition to growing regionalism and nationalism, but their leadership has been critical of the mainstream's disdain for the legitimacy of Scotland's growing democratic will and the potential influence of SNP MP's. This stance questioning potential deference to the Conservative or Labour Parties in a hung parliament or minority government, their decisions could be interesting.
The DUP Lion
Another party, very much removed from the former which could prove influential is the moderate, progressive and increasingly successful force of the Green Party. Originally a party proposing a middle way between social and economic imperatives, with environmental sustainability considered critical to both, this group has proven to be a honed and compelling political voice. Though not always as singular or as socially driven as some of the other parties who promote a more established philosophy, the Green's could yet prove a factor in turning government in Britain one way or the other, depending upon the nascent narrative of the other parties. Still, if lent to a strong, progressive mandate in parliament, this group might very well find their long awaited national breakthrough, since their inception.
The Leaf Corona and Earth crest of the Green Party
With these words and perspectives in mind, the rapidly approaching election day and what succeeds it could prove for a very, very intriguing 48 hours.
Clark Caledon.
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